Trading Update 15th June 2025

Brent Crude Surges: What Drove the Oil Price Spike This Week

This week, Brent crude spiked from roughly £52 to about £58 per barrel. Early Monday, news of escalating Middle Eastern tensions set the tone. Traders grew uneasy over potential supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. By mid‑week, reports of airstrikes between Israel and Iran drove Brent higher. Spread‑bettors rushed to capitalise on the sudden volatility. Such swings often reflect both genuine risk and speculative positioning.

By Thursday, Brent held firm near £57. Markets shrugged off modest signs of easing at OPEC+ meetings. Instead, geopolitical concerns remained in the driver’s seat. The week closed with Brent perched at its highest level in two months. For spread‑betting traders, this illustrated how rapidly the oil story can shift. Staying alert to breaking news and price charts proved crucial.

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate Further

Tensions between Israel and Iran dominated headlines throughout the week. On Tuesday, targeted air raids hit suspected military sites in southern Iran. Subsequent threats from Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz amplified fears. That narrow waterway handles close to a fifth of global oil shipments. Traders know even short interruptions can send prices soaring.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts made little progress. Western powers discussed potential sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Any fresh limits would tighten global supply. Spread‑bettors watched these developments like hawks. A full closure of the Strait could drive Brent toward triple digits. Even rumours of blockades can trigger sharp intra‑day moves. In such a fragile backdrop, market sentiment teeters between fear and opportunity.

US Political Signals and Strategic Reserves

Across the Atlantic, US policymakers eyed potential action to tame prices. The White House hinted at tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Yet no formal release was confirmed by week’s end. Many traders expected a modest drawdown, but details remained vague. Uncertainty over SPR use added another layer of complexity.

At the same time, Congress debated fresh sanctions on Iranian oil. That discussion reinforced supply concerns rather than easing them. Spread‑bettors tend to favour clear policy moves. Ambiguous chatter can spark knee‑jerk reactions. In this case, US political signals kept risk premiums elevated for anyone betting on oil, which meant preparing for rapid price jumps or drops.

OPEC+ Production Shifts and Outlook

OPEC+ confirmed plans to unwind 411,000 barrels per day of output cuts next month. Markets had largely priced in this extra supply. Yet, rising geopolitical risk outweighed any relief from higher OPEC production. Analysts now predict a tighter market in the second half 2025 if tensions persist.

Some member states argued for maintaining cuts longer. They fear renewed oil price spikes near $100. Spread‑bettors saw this internal debate as a wildcard. Any surprise decision to deepen cuts could fuel a fresh rally. Conversely, full roll‑backs would ease near‑term strain. Keeping an eye on OPEC’s official communiqués is vital for traders aiming to make time entries.

G7, Sanctions and Price Caps

Energy ministers from the G7 met to discuss market stability. They agreed to toughen a price cap on Russian crude at US$45 per barrel. This cap aims to curb Russia’s revenue while keeping oil flowing. Yet, there’s a risk of Russian retaliation by cutting exports to compliant buyers.

Any such move could further tighten supply. Spread‑bettors often trade off policy shifts like these. Tightening price caps sometimes backfires, gripping markets with fear of retaliation. Watching these diplomatic negotiations helps anticipate sudden spikes. A well‑timed spread bet can profit from the policy announcement and any market scramble.

Technical Patterns to Watch

From a chart perspective, Brent broke key resistance near £55 on Tuesday and then retested that level as support on Thursday. The next upside target is around £60. Momentum indicators show bullish strength, though overbought signals are flickering. Traders should look for a pullback toward £56 before chasing fresh longs.

Key moving averages remain bullish, with the 50‑day line above the 200‑day. Volume spikes during news events served as early breakout signals. Spread‑bettors can use these chart landmarks to time entries. A close above £60 on heavy volume could trigger further gains. Conversely, a fall below £54 might prompt short‑term shorts.

Economic Data and Demand Drivers

This week’s economic data offered mixed messages for oil demand. US hiring figures for May surprised to the upside. Strong job growth suggests sustained fuel consumption. That supported Brent, especially in the front‑month contract. By contrast, European manufacturing PMIs slipped, hinting at slower industrial fuel use.

China’s trade data showed modest export growth but weaker imports. That pattern points to softer domestic activity. Yet, Beijing’s pledge of further stimulus kept bullish momentum alive. For spread‑bettors, these mixed signals meant demand forecasts could swing sharply. Monitoring both top‑line economic releases and regional developments remains critical.

Currency and Commodity Cross‑Effects

Oil does not trade in isolation. The US dollar’s strength this week exerted downward pressure. A firmer dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. However, that effect was overshadowed by geopolitical risk premiums. Gold also rose alongside Brent, reflecting broader safe‑haven demand.

Spread‑bettors might hedge oil longs with dollar‑long positions if prices seem overstretched. Conversely, pairing oil bets with gold longs can capture dual risk trades. Understanding how oil moves in tandem with currencies and precious metals helps traders diversify strategies. Watch for correlations to tighten or break during major news events.

Risk Management Tips

This week’s wild swings underline the need for disciplined risk control. Always set stop‑loss orders to contain potential losses. Consider limiting any single position to a small percentage of the overall equity. Use staggered orders to scale into and out of trades, rather than all‑in bets.

On major news days, could you reduce your position size? Volatility spikes can trigger forced liquidations or margin calls in spread‑betting accounts. A calm, strategic entry often beats chasing quick profits. Remember, protecting capital enables you to seize the next big move when it appears.

Seasonal Factors and Storage Levels

Seasonal demand shifts also play a role. As summer begins in the northern hemisphere, refined product demand rises. Drivers take more trips, and power plants burn additional fuels during heat waves. Yet, storage levels in major hubs remain above five‑year averages. That buffer can temper price moves if demand disappoints.

Spread‑bettors should watch weekly storage reports from major agencies. Sudden draws often coincide with price spikes, offering intraday trading opportunities. Conversely, unexpected builds can trigger sharp sell‑offs. Balancing seasonal demand trends with inventory data enhances timing precision.

What It Means for Your Spread‑Betting Strategy

1. High volatility offers an opportunity
   Rapid price swings are suited to short‑term spread bets. But they also increase margin risk.

2. Diversify across themes
   Trade oil alongside dollar or gold movements. This can hedge single‑market shocks.

3. Monitor policy and calendar
   OPEC+ meetings, G7 updates and economic releases all carry weight. Mark your calendar.

4. Stick to your plan
   Overreacting to news can blow your budget. Plan entries and exits before the headlines drop.

Outlook for Next Week

Looking ahead, the market remains finely balanced. Any flare‑up in Middle Eastern fighting could push Brent above £60 in hours. Conversely, a clear US SPR release or OPEC reassurance might cap gains. Economic data from China and Europe will add fresh demand clues.

Spread‑bettors should stay glued to live news feeds and real‑time charts. A well‑timed stop‑loss or limit order can mean the difference between profit and margin call. With the oil market’s quick pulse, nimble fingers and disciplined risk rules are paramount.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.