Trading Update 22nd June 2025

Brent Crude Soars on US-Iran Strikes – Oil Market Update

From 15 June, oil markets faced fresh geopolitical shockwaves after Israel struck multiple Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Markets reacted swiftly as Brent crude spiked above $74 per barrel. Fear spread that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint handling almost 20 % of global oil trade. Traders scrambled, driving price volatility higher and underpinning the sharp jump.

By the weekend, the US launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, marking a dramatic escalation. Brent shot up to about $77.30 by Monday morning. Emotions ran high as traders weighed supply risks against the chance of broader conflict. This series of supply fears and military action defined the opening days of the week.

How Brent Crude Moved This Week

From 15 to 22 June, Brent swung wildly. On 16 June, it reached roughly $75 before steadying near $76 on 17 June. A brief dip followed reports that the US might delay further military action, calming nerves. But peace proved fleeting. By Monday, Brent surged above $77 after direct strikes and stabilised near $77.01 by 20 June.

Overall, Brent closed the week at around $77—a sharp rise from roughly $66 mid-June. This $10 gain in just seven days underlined extreme market sensitivity. For spread bettors, those moves offered prime opportunities to track spikes and retracements as sentiment shifted daily.

Market Mood and Stock Moves

Rising oil prices led to notable shifts in related stocks and broader markets. In London, energy majors outperformed amid rising crude. The FTSE 100 dipped overall, as investors moved away from cyclical sectors. US energy stocks also rallied in New York, while riskier stocks took a hit as geopolitical nerves rose.

Emerging markets felt the strain too. India’s indices slid, worried that higher oil costs would fuel inflation and slow growth. The rupee weakened beyond 86 per US dollar as import bills swelled. Currency markets shifted, with the US dollar gaining strength on safe-haven flows. Even crypto assets like Bitcoin tumbled, down about 5% by 21 June.

Supply, Sanctions, and OPEC+ Response

While initial price jumps reflected supply fears, other forces shaped the outlook too. Fresh US and EU sanctions on Iran tightened export potential. Yet many traders saw these sanctions as a stabilising signal, reducing the odds of uncontrolled escalation.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ and Russia showed no rush to boost output. President Putin remarked that oil at $75 was acceptable and no further measures were needed. With OPEC+ having eased output cuts earlier this year, the supply-demand balance remained relatively steady. Global inventories rose for the third month, softening upward pressure on prices.

Traders watched weekly stockpile data. Growing inventories capped extreme price gains despite geopolitical tensions. This interplay between risk and fundamentals kept Brent trading within a defined range by week’s end.

Political Turbulence in the US and Europe

US politics played a key role in shaping energy markets. President Trump’s decision to strike and warnings of further action roiled sentiment. Markets assigned roughly 65% odds of additional US military measures in Iran, fuelling volatile price swings.

In Europe, leaders met in The Hague to discuss defence spending amid rising global uncertainty. NATO partners considered boosting budgets to 5% of GDP, reflecting unease over Middle East spill-over. At the same summit, the Bank of England held rates at 4.25%, wary of inflation fanned by oil. Forecasts projected inflation near 3.7% by September.

Meanwhile, looming US secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers threatened to tighten supply further. Traders flagged potential tariffs on key importers, adding another layer of uncertainty to pricing dynamics.

What Spread Bettors Should Know

This week offered prime setups for spread bettors. Volatility spiked as geopolitical events hit successive headlines. Traders saw 4–5% intraday swings, providing clear entry and exit points.

Key zones emerged around $77–79 per barrel, likely resistance if tensions ease. A break above $80 could signal tighter supply if the Strait of Hormuz faces real disruption. Conversely, a drop below $75 might follow de-escalation or renewed OPEC+ output.

Monitor volatility indexes like the VIX, which jumped alongside equity dips. Rising risk aversion tended to push oil higher as investors sought hard assets. Spread bettors should pair charting tools with news feeds to capture real-time sudden moves.

Forecasts and Risk Scenarios

Looking ahead, three scenarios will guide trading opportunities:

1. Conflict escalation
If Iran retaliates or blocks the Strait of Hormuz, Brent may hit $90–100. Historical risk events show that such spikes occur rapidly. However, steep rises often trigger recession fears, leading to later pullbacks.

2. De-escalation
A diplomatic pause or ceasefire could push Brent back toward $70–73. Watch for signs of talks between the US, Iran and regional mediators. Diplomatic overtures often ease price pressures quickly.

3. Supply offset
OPEC+ or US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases could curb price gains. Yet inertia within OPEC+ and Moscow’s acceptance of current levels suggest this remains a secondary possibility.

Daily inventory data will remain crucial. Rising global stocks limit upward moves on risk headlines and offer traders a counterbalance to geopolitical narratives.

Conclusion

This week, a textbook case of geopolitics driving oil markets was delivered. Brent crude surged from $66 to $77, stabilising near $77 as markets parsed supply fundamentals. Energy stocks outperformed as broader equities lagged.

Volatility was the defining feature for spread bettors. Sharp swings carved clear trading zones, but risks remain high. Monitor Iran’s response, potential US action, and OPEC+ decisions. Use protective stops and clear trading plans to navigate this fast-moving geopolitical landscape.

Stay tuned for next-week updates on inventory data, sanctions developments, and broader market shifts that will continue to shape your trading edge.

Keep an eye on the oil prices here.